Growth in sales of generic drugs SUV overall slashing

NEW YORK - global growth in sales of prescription drugs could be cut in half over the next five years as lucrative brands lose patent protection and cheaper generics and emerging markets become important growth engines, according to IMS Health

"Past expenditure trends offer some clues on the level of growth until 2015," said Murray Aitken, a leader of IMS Health including division conducted the study.

"There are dynamics involved, which are driving unprecedented rapid changes in the composition of expenditures by patients and payers between branded and generic products," said Aitken, whose society followed trends and the sale of prescription drugs.

Average annual sales should grow by 3 to 6 per cent during the period, reaching almost here $ 1.1 billion in 2015. But the trend reflects a slowdown in the annual growth of 6.2% observed over the past five years, said the report.

The United States sales rise only 0 to 3% per year over the period, while sales in Europe will increase from 1 to 4 per cent. Brand drug expenses should be changed little in these markets developed by 2015, with growth coming instead from the demand for less expensive generic drug manufacturers.

A wave of the new generic approach as an unprecedented number of big drug loses patent protection U.S. by 2015, including the control of Pfizer Inc., 10 billion dollars per year cholesterol fighter Lipitor, Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Plavix blood clot and Zyprexa Eli Lilly and the Commander of schizophrenia.

Aitken said too few new drugs are being approved to offset lost sales of those facing the onslaught of generics greatly.

"We continue to be disappointed by the number of new chemical and biological entities in the market," he said.

Altogether, less expensive generic formulations of drugs due will produce from $ 98 billion in net savings to insurers in the developed until 2015.

"The part of the United States of expenditures spent 41 per cent in 2005 to 31% in 2015, while the share of the budget devoted by the countries of Europe top 5 from 20 percent to 13 percent," said the report.

During this time, he said spending will probably double over the next five years in new markets, 285 million to 315 million per year, or approaching the United States levels.

"Seventeen emerging markets growth high, led by China, will contribute to 28% of the total spending by 2015, instead of only 12 per cent in 2005," said the report. He noted that growth will be come mainly from generics.

Overall spending on cancer drugs expected to reach 75 billion dollars here, 2015 amounting to a much slower pace than in the past five years, as many more recent treatments and expensive biotech are already widely used in developed markets.

But the annual expenditure on medicines diabetes should increase by 4% to 7% until 2015, due in large part to the changing of regimes and ways of life in developing countries to increase the prevalence of Type II diabetes.